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curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43] 
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Post curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Poster: curtains
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Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:12 pm
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Knight

Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 3:21 am
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Because Shanghai did not win this is the worst video on this site.


Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:37 pm
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Rook

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
On the next holiday draw you should include a city chosen by the posters on this site, so we have something to root for from the start..... by knowing this crowd it'll probably by Kabul.


Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:03 pm
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Knight

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
STEAMED


Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:12 pm
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Rook

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Greg, if you want to do a system that is a little less random but still could result in a fairly unexpected result you could prerank each city from 1-64. The number one city gets #64, last gets #1. Then do the same system, having 64 play 1 in the first round, 63 - 2, etc. 64 would then play the 8/9 matchup of 33 - 32, etc, just like how you set it up (as a bonus all first round matchups would use the random number generator between 1-65, so you won't have to fiddle with it as much)

Using this system, the #1 overall seed would have around an 8% chance of finishing as overall winner, while a 4-seed would have about a 1.5% chance of winning, an 8-seed would have around 0.5%, a 12-seed 0.07%, and a 16-seed... well, it'll be a bit like being the 16-seed in the NCAAs.


Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:05 pm
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Here are the odds I want? Any math geniuses can create a tourney format like this?

1 seeds: 10%, 8%, 7%, 6%
2 seeds: 5.5%, 5%, 5%, 4.5%
3 seeds: 4%, 4%, 3%, 3%
4 seeds: 2.5%, 2.5%, 2%, 2%
5 seeds: 1.75%, 1.75%, 1.6%, 1.6%
6 seeds: 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.25%, 1.25%
7 seeds: all 1%
8 seeds: all ..8%
9 seeds: all .5%
10 seeds: all .4%
11 seeds: all .3%
12 seeds: all .2%
13 seeds: all .1%
14 seeds: all .075%
15 seeds: all .05%
16 seeds: all .025%

some stats I like here:

it's about 50/50 that the winner will be either a 1 or 2 seed. It's about 75% that the winner will be a 1-4 seed. It's about 90% that the winner will be a seed from 1-7.

There is still the chance of a darkhorse.....a 2% chance that the winner will be a 12-16 seed, which is about how I'd like it. I think the odds in my last tournament gave too big of a chance to the worse seeds.

I know some genius out there can come up with a system like this..just tell me what numbers need to be used :)

Maybe I should raise the lower odds...one sec...

So ok...some math nerd please figure out the best way to replicate this :) Thanks!


Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:18 pm
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Haha, you were sounding really relieved that it was Boston :mrgreen:


Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:12 pm
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Knight

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Boston is a cool place, hope you enjoy it, you should go somewhere you have never been though :) i do have one question buddy, you said that you didnt know if you were winning or not in poker? How would you not know?? You have like a bot playing for ya or something? I love playing poker but i get flushed away by the river everytime i play lol.


Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:19 pm
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Well I play a lot of hands on a ton of different tables, so it's tough to keep track.


Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:23 pm
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Knight

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Any chance of having the brackets in the next vacation tourney being regional?
1. North America
2. South America/Africa
3. Europe
4. Asia/Australia

keeps the final four mixed and there are cool cities everywhere. Just a thought. I love the idea you came up with, I would never be able to do that with my wife and kids. Very enjoyable journey with you.


Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:07 am
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
I dunno, because some continents I'd prefer to go to a lot more than others.


Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:21 am
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Knight

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Maybe Europe gets two categories and you combine asia, australia, S america and S Africa. N America gets one.


Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:42 am
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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
ehhh, honestly rather not :)


Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:56 am
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Knight

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
I appreciate you even getting feedback from us about your vacation tourney. Always impressed by your chess, but even more so about how personable you are :-)


Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:35 am
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King

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Post Re: curtains - L518: B vs SNOEBE [2301] [12:43]
Oh, I see... I suspect Asian gamble influences! Kabul sounds nice Comface, or maybe somewhere in the jungle of Congo?

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Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:24 am
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